Timothy Ghriskey Fed Quotations

The benign inflation data and the belief that the Fed may be closer to the end than had previously been thought has helped the market this week.

The talk is that the Fed is going to be getting more aggressive soon, and may start raising rates by 50 basis points at a time. It's not going to happen this time, because (Fed Chairman) Alan Greenspan knows he needs to prepare the market for this in advance.

They are saying the economy is going to slow and that there's no inflation but that we still need to raise rates. Investment professionals worry that the Fed will go too far and grind the economy into a recession.

The fear that's out there is forward looking, with people worrying about inflation and what the Federal Reserve might do in the months ahead. So the numbers next week won't help, although we do get a lot of earnings, which is good.

We do have the wind of the Fed at our back. At some point this downturn we're in levels out.

Oil continues to be a big influence on the market, and the Fed is as well. As inflation goes, so goes the Fed.

But the language in the Fed comments and in Greenspan's speeches of late has been pointing to rate hikes becoming more aggressive, ... The word 'measured' is going to be dropped soon, maybe at this meeting, maybe at the next.

I think the August Fed meeting is a big overhang. And certainly the direction from that meeting will influence where the market goes. We could get into a bit of a summer doldrums here with August looming, from vacation time and all of that,