The potential supply disruption risk premium has already been built into the price and because there really is no immediate threat to supply ... prices are correcting downwards.
There is certainly the possibility (of prices hitting USD70). The recent events have attracted speculators and oil has become a lot like an investment.
There is certainly the possibility (of prices hitting 70 dollars). The recent events have attracted speculators and oil has become a lot like an investment.
We can expect an overall high floor in prices this week.
There is no fundamental reason driving prices back up. Market participants felt that the 60 dollar level is an important mark and dropping below 60 is too much of a fall.
With all these events in the Middle East, prices hit the psychological level of 70 (dollars) and settled above it.
The pullback appears to be due to profit-taking, which is not surprising considering prices have really surged in the past few days. The decline will not be large because the Iranian issue is keeping a high floor under prices.
Besides the fundamental supply and demand information, prices are driven by the emotional momentum of the Iranian issue.
It looks like the perfect storm to drive prices up.
Iran individually can't raise prices ... whether Iran will respond to sanctions with an oil embargo may lead to a spike in prices. But I don't think it will occur because it will affect oil revenue to Iran.
Because the surge in prices last week was so strong, inevitably there is profit-taking.
The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards. But Nigeria is more problematic in the short term, because it has actually disrupted supply.
The geopolitical drama over Iran and Nigeria is sending oil prices upwards.