Despite the fact that the unemployment rate remains low relative to prior economic downturns, the burden on the unemployed population has been the most severe, by one measure, since at least 1972.
I think the Fed certainly looks at this as building up as pricing power on the part of companies, ... But (the price index) is still within the tolerable range for the Fed. That's not to say the Fed can relax and go on vacation, but I would say they're a relatively benign.
My suspicion is that the dollar will remain relatively strong because, even if the ECB starts lowering rates, they've got a lot of catching up to do, ... The prognosis for the dollar remains cautiously optimistic.
The number tells me a recession is coming, but it will be relatively mild in the wake of all the stimulus coming. But I would caution investors not to be so complacent as to think this could be bottom. It's going to be a lot uglier in the fourth quarter.