Bill Dreher Store Quotations

Target has the best advertising marketing campaign in retailing. They do an amazing job of elevating a discount store to a very cool destination shop and so they are always pushing the envelope.

We believe this will have a negative impact on February sales for the majority of our retailers as the much colder weather will likely impede store traffic, and sales of spring merchandise sets that are now in stores may be impacted.

He (Lacy) was dealing with a deceitful department head who sounds like he was hiding some bad news, ... Our feeling is Alan Lacy is being very forthcoming and straightforward with the problems, and is tackling them very aggressively. But we're not convinced that's going to be enough to immediately restore investor confidence in shares.

Discount stores have really become an increasing portion of consumers' expenditures. Now there's talk of fluctuating energy prices, job layoffs, and people are looking for the best value possible. So we believe the discount stores are going to benefit disproportionately from the tax rebate. We expect Wal-Mart will be the leader in July.

We believe our competitors have shown irrational exuberance with Christmas forecasts, ... We believe the average consumer is worried about higher gasoline prices, jobs and doesn't believe he will benefit from the stock market. With this climate, if you're just a 'me-too' retailer, you'll be in a world of hurt. The department stores will suffer but the discounters Wal-Mart and Target will do well.

Department stores are already focusing on rejecting shipments from vendors that they ordered. They are also looking to promote inventory they already have in hand. As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

We have always been skeptical of their reverting back to their blue light roots in the stores and on the Web, ... Instead of emphasizing every-day low prices, it appears to emphasize one-time grab-bag bargains, which is not what the consumer wants right now.

Given the severity of the storm, we expect that stores in the affected areas could lose up to two days of sales as roads were nearly impossible to navigate.

As we get through the season, department stores are going to be brutal in throwing merchandise back to vendors.

The companies that are seeing strong gross margin improvements are getting it not from improving their merchandising mix, but from improved buying. Retailers like Wal-Mart and Target are lowering their cost of acquiring products. Sears on the other hand, continues to struggle with the turnaround of its department stores and problems with its credit card unit.

All the department stores we talked to admit quite clearly it's an unprecedented environment, and they have no direct comparison in being able to plan. It makes their job very, very difficult.