Enrique Alvarez Treasury Quotations

The market place is at the mercy of the Fed, its rhetoric and of U.S. Treasuries, which are highly data dependent. Anything that signals weakness either in inflation or in housing will be positive for Latin America because it is going to weaken Treasury yields.

It is pretty evident that every time you get above (the 10-year Treasury yield of) 4.72 to 4.73 percent area the market becomes uneasy. That is the inflection point where you see negative returns and some spread widening (in emerging market debt).

Emerging markets are very dependent on the direction of the Treasury. The market has had very good success in not invading above the (10-year Treasury) 4.80 percent yield level which is a very difficult area for the U.S. Treasury market.

The Latin American market is going to pay a lot of attention to moves in U.S. Treasury rates, while the US equity market remains a major momentum generator.