Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.
July sales always looked unsustainably high relative to the level of mortgage applications so a correction was due. This drop in sales does not mark the start of a sustained weakening.
This may mark the start of an upturn in exports, but it's too soon to be sure.