Ian Shepherdson Rep Quotations

This report will leave the markets still pushing for a Fed ease...but perhaps with a bit less conviction, ... It is still not a done deal.

This report is stronger than it looks and is consistent with the industrial recovery gathering pace,

This report is much stronger than it first appears.

This report indicates manufacturing is continuing to rebound from the Asian crisis, which is exactly what the Fed expects.

This report does not change the big picture, but it lifts the starting point for growth in both the first quarter and 2003 as a whole; good news,

This report augurs very well for the holidays.

Clearly, this report looks awful, but it does not presage any change in the underlying inflation environment, ... PPI is not driving Fed policy.

The price index was up, ... This reflects the rise in oil prices and not much else, but that won't stop doom-mongers worrying about it. In short, the report shows manufacturing is still on track.

These data leave confidence very close to its cycle high, and completely unaffected by higher interest rates. Together with the rise in home sales also reported today, the data sit very uneasily with Mr. Greenspan's dovish tone last week and again today.

After four straight months of worse-than-expected core CPI numbers, (this report provides) some relief.

Preparing the markets for a rate hike is a process in which the Fed gradually has to back away from its unduly pessimistic stance of recent months. This will take some time, but the process is now underway.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.

This is a surprise but it cannot last. We think the other elements of the report give a better indication of the strength of the market, with supply of single-family homes up to 5.3 months, compared to just 4.0 a year ago. Price gains have slowed to 7.8 percent year-on-year, down from 10.4 percent in Feb and a 19-month low. Much lower sales will follow.

This hugely strong report will doubtless be cited as evidence that the housing market is not slowing. However, the extremely warm January weather surely distorted these data, just as it boosted retail sales and depressed industrial production.

There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.

The headline is all about Boeing, which reported 200 new aircraft orders in May, up from 14 in April. Unusually, it seems that nearly all these orders have hit the official data immediately. Apart from this, however, these are soft data. Ex-transportation orders fell 0.2% and there was a downward revision to April, now put at -0.7%.

The bottom line here is that the month-to-month volatility in the durable orders data is such that the true information content in a single report is very small -- there's just too much noise.

The Fed has begun to prepare the markets for higher interest rates, ... almost balanced.

We think not, but this report muddies the waters for the FOMC.

In any event, a single durable good report will have little effect on the Fed.

The report suggests that industrial orders are trending higher as manufacturing recovers from the Asia crisis, ... There are no real signs of a slowdown.

No doubt bears will highlight the rise in continuing claims, up another 29,000, but we are unmoved: A rising ratio of continuing to initial claims signals accelerating productivity growth, not a shaky recovery, ... Labor market conditions are improving -- but we still expect a soft payroll report Friday.

Ignore the ISM at your peril, ... Assuming this report is not a fluke - everything we look at suggests it is very real - it is consistent with year-over-year GDP growth accelerating to 4 percent by the summer.

It is still too early to call the end of the manufacturing slump because the stability of July output might be little more than a seasonal effect, ... this report probably means the worst is over.

The January revision is mostly due to the plunge in aircraft orders reported in the durable-goods numbers. In February, the index was pulled down by lower consumer confidence, higher jobless claims, shorter delivery times and lower building permits.