Ian Shepherdson Slow Quotations

The headline was pulled down by slightly bigger declines in gasoline, natural gas and fuel oil prices than we expected. Core PPI is now up just 1.7% year over year, down from May's 2.8% peak. It will slow further in the wake of the slowing in raw-materials prices, but the Fed cares much more about the labor market than PPI.

Given the huge decline in consumer confidence, this (gain in spending) does not seem unreasonably weak, especially with consumers' real after-tax income growth slowing too.

Given the complete absence of meaningful inflationary pressure evident in the economy now, and -- as the Fed put it, 'tentative evidence of a slowing in certain interest-rate sensitive sectors of the economy' -- we think there is very little chance that rates will rise again in the current cycle.

This is a sign that the committee is beginning to think aloud about shifting to a more neutral position - but the forecast of significantly slower growth will have to come first, ... For now, the elevated headline inflation rate and the tight pool of available labor remain bigger concerns, so the Fed's guard is still up.

We had hoped the flow of people filing for extended benefits would slow this week, pushing claims back towards their underlying trend -- about 350,000, but it didn't happen,

There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.

For the second straight week, jobless claims have substantially undershot the consensus, ... Analysts apparently do not want to accept that the flow of extra job losses caused by the events of Sept. 11 is slowing sharply, but that is exactly what the data indicate.

The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,

The trend in sales is probably not as weak as this seems to suggest, but there is no question that the condo/co-op market is slowing much more dramatically than the market for single-family homes. Even in the latter case, however, sales have fallen more than 10% from their summer peak.

With productivity likely to slow a bit further, there is little room for maneuver. In short, good news today but not enough alone to change the outlook.

This strongly suggests that core finished goods' prices will slow over the next few months,

My guess is that is that at the moment these numbers seem to be supporting the slow down story, ... But the market is pretty much ignoring it and moving on.

It is tempting to argue that two straight months of sales nearer to the 900,000 level than one million...is evidence of a real slowing in housing. But it probably tells us more about the awful weather across much of the country,

There is no chance of a spontaneous slowing in home sales. The market will soften if -- and only if -- mortgage rates rise significantly.

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead --but it does mean no rate hike on (Aug.) 22,

We doubt that this report unambiguously points to slower growth ahead -- but it does mean no rate hike on the 22nd.

Looking forward, we think there is next to no chance these numbers mark the start of a real slowing in consumer spending. The markets will no doubt take comfort from the headlines, but it is temporary relief.

These data again show that when people have substantial net assets, slower income growth need not kill spending,

If this continues, it can do real damage to core inflation, making it all the more important that the Fed succeeds in slowing the economy to ease inflation pressure.

they strongly suggest that the trend in employment growth is slowing hard. A big drop in May payrolls may be in the cards.

Overall, solid domestic final demand, but the second quarter will be much weaker. We expect growth to slow to 3% or less, led by a sharp slowing in consumption.