Josh Stiles Fed Quotations

I would be interested in what those Fed members who are concerned about longer-term risks to the economy say in terms of any damage from higher energy prices and commodity prices.

It doesn't look like from what we are seeing this morning that the economy is recessionary, and now it's probably going to cast some doubt on how aggressive the Fed is going to want to be from here,

It really comes down to the fact that the Fed is saying demand is excessive, ... Until they see enough cooling (of the economy) there's potential for more rate hikes.

The idea that's been gaining currency in the market is the Fed pause theory, meaning that the Fed raises rates 25 basis points in September and then, because inflation pressures are contained, they pause for a while, skipping a move in November and maybe even December. The (producer price index) data this morning kind of fed into that theory.

The market's starting to look further ahead. There seems to be the sentiment that the economy will cool and the Fed (once it hikes interest rates later this month) will be done.