Marc Pado Market Quotations

Net-net, there's probably plenty of oil in the market. OPEC left production quotas, so that's a plus for the market this morning.

Obviously the Iranian thing is a wild card and nothing's going to get resolved in the short term, but the earnings are really what's key to the market and any longer-term perspective.

Post 'quadruple-witching', it would not be unexpected to see the market settle down a bit.

From now on, strong economic numbers threaten another rate hike. Weak numbers point to profit disappointments. What the bull market needs is a catalyst, which would likely need to be a break in energy and basic materials prices.

Had it not been for the impressive January same-store sales reports, decent forward-looking statements and the big drop in energy prices, the market drop would have been far worse. With the understanding that we needed to keep our eyes on wage pressures and productivity, both of those components suddenly soured investors on the idea that the Fed was truly done.

We are facing a large number of Katrina-related warnings, ... The market is just coming to realize that it is going to be a tough September.

While we would like to see a follow-through day, the positive implications from yesterday's rally should help reinforce a support under the market at Tuesday's intraday lows. Weakness in same-store retail sales and continued strength in crude will represent the first obstacles for the bulls today.

Yields, especially on the long end, have been dogging the market in recent weeks. And retail sales down more than expected shows enough of a slowing to question whether or not the Fed needs to continue to act.

Every time investors think the Fed is going to be one-and-done, they rally the market 100 points. Yesterday was no exception. The potential for an additional 25 basis points in June faded from over 50% to about 28%. That gave the market the added juice it needed to penetrate serious overhead supply.

It looks like some seasonal New Year's buying will give the market a bullish start, but this January faces many negative technical obstacles.

It will take some strong earnings and bullish forecasts, as well as positive economic data, to keep the rally going. There are plenty of economic data and earnings releases to sway market opinion from hour to hour and day to day. Behind it all, there is the rising threat of geopolitical tensions with Iran and higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve.

Any time you remove uncertainty, it's good news for the market. Having raised the question, the market has shifted its attention to Greenspan from earnings.

If you're going into the worst year of a four-year cycle and heading into one of the worst months statistically of the year, then it seems like a likely opportunity for the market to see its 10 percent correction.

In the war of rates vs. oil, one would have to say that oil is winning out. Concerns of further rate increases are coming to fruition, yet the market has continued to push higher. Energy prices have fallen quickly and have taken out several trading support levels.

Internally, the market's bounce left something to be desired. Since the market went out on the high of the day, it should have some morning momentum left. The real question is whether or not it can be sustained without any major earnings-, economic-, or oil-moving news.

By the end of this week, the attention will shift to the December employment report and then on to earnings starting next week. By the end of the month, earnings and forward-looking projections will be what needs to step up to the plate if the market is to continue the rally.

The market had been ignoring the recent run in crude, brushing it off as temporary emotional buying as a hedge against economic sanctions against Iran. Whatever the reason, oil is back up against all-time highs, and that was making the markets nervous.

The market will be swimming upstream against a small current. We are still seeing a market rally that has not broken any key technical supports, but there are crack in the foundation. If they start to see selling on the news by the end of the day, that, too, is a warning sign that this rally is nearing an end.