All is not quiet on the inflation front. Commodity prices and capacity constraints still pose some inflation risks.
The Canadian currency is considered a commodity currency. When commodities prices are up, investors tend to have exposure to the currency.
We're seeing signs that consumers are starting to feel the impact of persistently high gas prices. As prices stay high we're going to see the impact broaden from discount to more mainstream retailers.
Despite the fact that energy prices are creeping up and housing continues to crumble, surveys suggest job gains are providing an offset for confidence. The potential is there for consumer spending to remain resilient.
Mortgage equity withdrawal (which keys off prices and rates) is going to ebb substantially and pull consumer spending growth down along with it. When it does, the Fed will pause.