We've seen a clear pickup in consumer spending and housing and now the manufacturing sector. I'd say with a couple more months, businesses will start to gain confidence.
Looking forward, the factors are in place for economy to rebound, ... Capital spending will stay in negative territory for a while, but I expect consumer spending to turn by the end of the year.
The recession has ended, ... It is pretty typical but mild recession because consumer spending remained firm and housing continued to grow.
The reason we've shifted to deficit spending is largely due to a shift from very robust economic growth and a booming stock market into a recession. The bottom line is, I'm not particularly concerned.
After a couple of false starts, the past couple of months does have the feel of a more traditional recovery, driven by consumer spending and housing. The follow-through is the business response.
Consumer spending is growing only modestly. So, it appears the easing of interest rates has helped the consumer only somewhat ... not a lot.
I'm more interested in how people spend than how they respond to surveys. I've found that the consumer sentiment survey really doesn't provide much value added in forecasting consumer spending patterns. I'm not too upset about the decline.