Anthony Chan Expect Quotations

We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.

Given our forecast, we do not expect that this statistical release will have much impact on the policy debate when the Fed meets,

This was low because of lower energy prices. I don't think that's a decline we can expect to continue.

It's unreasonable to expect that the information we have so far could justify another cut right now. We need to see more evidence the economy is headed for much slower growth in the months ahead.

They (wages) are still not at levels we would expect at this point in an economic expansion.

If you have productivity growing faster than the economy, how can you expect demand for labor to be all that strong? I'm still hopeful that unemployment won't go much higher than 6.2 percent or 6.3 percent, but where we'll peak is not as important as when we turn around. If we sort of linger at 6.2 percent, that will put some downward pressure on consumer spending.

In other words, before the end of 2002, the Fed should signal that their upward rate moves were just a warm-up for what we can expect in 2003.

By telling us that the risks are more heavily weighed towards weakness while simultaneously stating that they expect an economic recovery within the next several calendar quarters, they are revealing that they remain willing to act if they need to while also reassuring financial markets that there is no need for panic over the near term.