This puts to rest any question of whether or not we're going to have an explosive recovery. We're clearly not.
Futures are down this morning, feeling the pressure of Texas Instruments' weak forecast. Now it is clear that growth is certainly going to slow. The question is, by how much?
I think it was interesting that sales fell despite the fact that we had limited auto incentives in November. It raises the question of what is likely to happen once these incentives disappear entirely.
There's no question unemployment is what drives consumer confidence, which in turn drives consumer spending. We have to be realistic and accept the notion that, as we enter the first quarter and December, these sales are going to get a bit weaker. We're still in a recession.
There's no question these higher mortgage rates will take some of the shine off the resiliency in the housing market,
There's no question the recovery is taking longer than people thought. People thought the economy would pick up very quickly and that we would have a typical garden variety economic recovery. That's not the case, but the good news is it is a recovery. You can't ask for more than that.
There's no question that what's happening in the stock market is going to hurt consumer spending. The only thing helping us is the performance of housing.
There's no question in my mind that the labor market is improving.
The initial knee jerk reaction was a powerful rally in the morning. As cooler heads prevail, it's clear it's still a positive for equities, but the question is whether it is strongly positive or mildly positive.