Art Hogan Con Quotations

The price of oil will be the main driver this week, particularly since there is so little economic news.

The price of oil is acting as a natural drag on the U.S. economy and the global economy. It creates a great deal of investor uncertainty, ... as earnings reports start coming in, it's going to be what companies tell us about the next three quarters that determines if investors get off the sidelines.

Today we had some positive economic data and we came into the market oversold, ... I don't think we've fixed the oversold position -- I think we're still cheap. Tomorrow there will be some focus on factory orders and Cisco earnings.

The problem is that terrific news on inflation is not what we need right now, ... We need terrific news on the demand side of the economy. The economy hasn't stabilized yet so we don't have any great need to buy stocks.

The concern is about how much the economy picks up and how quickly that translates into earnings growth for corporate America.

The concern (about ECB rates) is that the firmness we've been seeing in the dollar is because they were raising rates and the Europeans weren't, ... If they start raising rates, that firmness evaporates, and our investments don't look as attractive as they did last week.

It certainly doesn't hurt, ... It always helps to hear her say that she's still confident but it's 12 months out.

You don't get a ton of people making huge bets ahead of the Fed meeting, ... There's little corporate news and no economic data, so I think you'll get some bargain hunters here.

We're keeping our fingers crossed that we'll continue to see signs of (economic) stabilization, ... The economy is key and will be the catalyst to get people off the sidelines.

There's just no conviction to get back in, ... Right now we're in all-bad-news-all-the-time mode.

In terms of the thought process on the economy, today's ISM data on the services sector didn't help. It didn't really come as a surprise -- but, having said that, the broader thought process that the economy isn't doing well in the second half compared with the first half has investors concerned that we may need to test the lows of the market again.

Microsoft's news was put into perspective as the day moved along. The path of least resistance continues to be to the upside for this market.

If we continue to see the trend slowing and we get better (economic) numbers, I think the Fed can take a pass at the end of the month and wait until August.

It's good news because it shows there's no creeping inflation. And the Fed is not worried about inflation. What they care about is the manufacturing side of things, retail sales and consumer spending.

My guess is we're going to have some positive action after last week's selling. We're in the last week of the month and the last week of a quarter, so there's some momentum there. If the stream of economic data is as positive as it's been, we're going to see some strength from that.

You can't have it both ways -- the economy can't be strong and have us worrying about revenue growth going forward, so it has to be the trend is slowing and how much that affects equity valuations going forward.

The biggest fear is earnings going forward, ... All the consumer non-durable multinationals are going to have to warn about the ill effects of the strong dollar versus the weak euro, but that's cyclical.

We spent the week worrying about yields and what the economic data would do. We managed to work our way through it. We finished off the week the best we could. Next week we have a host of economic data that may or may not change our mind. We'll see how it plays out.

We've had a lot of bad news today -- the economic data, Cigna and the insurance sector is doing poorly, a bunch of companies missing estimates or warning -- but this is a market that really doesn't want to sell off,

We've had a few good days and the only economic number we had today was the jobless claims, ... People are starting to get nervous -- if the jobless claims look like that, what will the unemployment rate look like, and that's the driver.

Concerns about higher interest rates and the yield on the 10-year note may keep stocks on the south side again this morning. The higher yield ... acts as a tax on corporations, and it may also attract money to the bond markets from equities.

It sends a signal that the U.S. economy has weathered some pretty harsh storms over the past few years and in recent months.

Nervousness is building ahead of the one-year anniversary of September 11, and it's bound to continue until we get that date behind us,

With the financials, that entire space has been tarnished by a confidence crisis. Also, on a more fundamental level rather than a psychological level, there's no investment banking business going on right now. The concerns remain about the banks' exposure to bankrupt telecoms WorldCom and Global Crossing,

We celebrated the fact that (the Fed) was much less stern on their rhetoric yesterday (Wednesday), but today the party is over and a slower economy may have an adverse effect on earnings,

The Fed disappointed us short term, ... The economy looks better than it did in December and the Fed knows more than we do.

(Greenspan's) a proponent of what productivity gains have brought to this new economy, ... Of all the things he says, the least hawkish is when he talks about productivity and the new economy. In terms of Wall Street's reaction, I wouldn't say we could garner anything but a positive feeling.

We shouldn't get too far ahead of ourselves in terms of an economic recovery, ... I think the debate will become much more macro-economic instead of the micro focus we have had.

What Goldman is saying about Sun and EMC is IT (information technology) spending hasn't picked up that much, ... But we're more concerned about the economic recovery, so the data will probably play a larger role.

There's an unbelievable number of reports coming out, any number of which could move us one way or the other, ... If we have a blowup in the jobless claims, and it goes above 400,000, if the consumer sentiment number doesn't confirm today's consumer confidence number, you could see some selling.

What we've gotten, in terms of economic data and earnings, is no sense things are picking up ? they're (investors) afraid of another ledge to go over,

It's good to remember that it's the consumer that's going to turn this economy around -- and if the consumer is out there spending, that's a good sign,

Just because Oracle is up and is optimistic about the future is not getting us excited about everything, ... Nobody's convinced there will be a rebound in the second half.

This was a nice way to start off the new year. A lot of this was driven by the fact that the Fed confirmed that end is in sight. We've held onto the belief that when the Fed ends that stock prices will go up. We'll still have rate hikes but the market is celebrating that we'll see an ending sooner than later.

I think there's a lot of things going on, ... We had some good news from companies like Oracle, great economic data this morning, and you had the market clear two key psychological hurdles recently -- the Dow passing 10,000 and the capture of Saddam Hussein. All of that brings buyers back in for the short term.

We need a significant catalyst. Whether it be great second-quarter earnings or blowout economic data or some marquee firms coming out with a mid-second-quarter preview.

During earnings, we're often in a trading range, and I think we still are right now. We've got 100 members of the S&P reporting this week, a lot of economic news and the Fed tomorrow, so for the market to go sideways a bit is not a bad thing.

The season started upbeat and that was terrific. That helps the overall consensus that the second quarter (reports) will be rosier.

The second quarter is lining up to be another good quarter but people are looking ahead to the third and fourth quarters. Barring any major upsets on the earnings calendar I'd say the market is pretty range bound.

We've got a lot of economic news between now and the next Fed meeting in May. The path of least resistance is higher, but there's a bumpy road.

We're starting to see that companies are starting to admit that the second half is going to be slow, so that's a lingering fear,

We're seeing a nice handful of earnings today. That is going to be the driver. The other driver, or the thing that's not going to hold us back this quarter, and I would argue has held us back the last three quarters, is the consensus is the Fed is done for the year, ... We don't have a credit tightening cycle to go through and we're seeing terrific earnings. So I would argue that the focus returns now to earnings growth, revenue growth, the strength of corporate America and not necessarily the macro-economic themes like monetary policy which have been on the forefront for the last couple of quarters.

I don't think that's what happened here, I think that will be more of a fourth-quarter issue, ... I do think we'll see some backup in consumer discretionary spending. That's something we're going to be listening to on 4Q estimates.

For two weeks we've been concerned about earnings, energy prices and the euro,

It didn't really come as a surprise -- but, having said that, the broader thought process that the economy isn't doing well in the second half compared with the first half has investors concerned that we may need to test the lows of the market again.

The increase in wages was the piece that really speaks to the inflationary pressure. The fear is that the Fed doesn't stop in March, that it continues through May. If corporate America's borrowing costs go up, that makes stocks less attractive.

We've shifted focus here. It's been earnings, earnings, earnings all week, now its the economic reports, ... Unfortunately, it's a mixed bag and the biggest surprise was the GDP reading.

Obviously, we are still concerned about how much the economy is slowing going forward. There are a lot of people who aren't making bets on this marketplace.

The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise. But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.

The Fed said rates are going higher, which was no surprise, ... But when you're in an interest rate rising environment, all the smatterings of what would be considered good news look like a confirmation that rates will rise.

The Fed knows more than we do about the economy -- they can look around the corner and see the economy turning around,

We're certainly not convinced that stocks are either pricey or inexpensive here, ... So you're not getting anyone jumping in one way or another.

This is not unlike the five percent to 10 percent correction a lot of people were calling for in the beginning of the year. You have an absence of corporate and economic news and clearly people are trying to rationalize valuations.

Today wasn't much of a day. There was a lot of positive news and the economic data was good, but the reaction was a very quiet, almost muted one. Tomorrow may be even quieter in terms of volume as we approach the end of this holiday-shortened week.

Clearly investor confidence has not come back in the market.

We have extremely large concerns about inflation, high interest rates and high energy prices, ... There is great concern that we don't know how much earnings growth will decelerate over the next two quarters.

Investors are starting to discount the second quarter and price in growth in the fourth quarter,

It's a lagging number that will have two revisions. There were no major surprises. Economic data will still move this market, but this isn't one of them.

We need some capitulation in the economy and if we get any sort of turnaround in the economy we can turn this market around on the Nasdaq. We're clearly in a market searching for a bottom.

When the Federal Reserve is in a (interest rate) tightening mode it's difficult to get excited about old economy stocks,

The retail stores are doing well. Consumers remain confident, continue to be out there spending their money, ... A lot of money was created with lower interest rates and refinancing -- things of that nature. So, consumer confidence has stayed very high and retail stores, that have actually done it right, have been doing pretty well.

We really have priced in a lot of bad news. Even if we continue to see a string of (negative) pre-reports, at some point in time, we're going to start to trend higher.

Historically, the market has tried to move four months ahead of an economic recovery.

Historically, six to nine months after rate cuts, the economy stabilizes and starts to swing in the other direction, ... But a lot of things are different this time. The Fed came off an aggressive tightening mode, and there's a global economic slowdown. It's just going to take a while longer this time.

If we can continue to see (the economy slowing down) perhaps we're done after Tuesday's Fed meeting.

There's been this tug of war all day between factors like falling oil prices, more negative than positive economic news and everything going on at GM,

I think the market will continue to drift without any real direction until we get Friday's employment report and investors get a sense of the current economic outlook.

I think the market has discounted a lot of the bad second-quarter chatter we're going to hear, and my guess is that conference calls going forward are going to be much more positive,

An overly robust economy came to a screeching halt, so there's much more of a backlog of production capacity and inventory,

Some major companies that drive this economy have been talking about a better fourth quarter and better first half of next year, ... It's not just predicated on easier interest rates.

We're not getting a lot of companies that are doing cartwheels about the second half in terms of IT demand. In terms of where we stand, getting out of the second-quarter earnings reporting season, moving on with business as usual, is probably going to be a healthy thing.

I think this can sustain for the next day or two, at least until we get to all the earning and economic news in the second half of the week, ... Right now, the path of least resistance is still to the upside.

I think that we just ran out of steam after a couple of hours. I am glad that we held on our gains from Friday. Oil will continue to be a driver, earnings will be a driver, and so will economics.

It's a good day for the market, ... It's a great boon for the economy when you've got more than $70 billion in M&A activity (mergers and acquisitions), and these companies are making these moves because they think the economy is getting better.

I think 50 basis points (one-half percentage point) is a credible consensus estimate for what the Fed does (at its March 20 meeting). Unfortunately, over the last five or six tumultuous trading days, we've talked ourselves into the fact that the Fed cares about equity valuations, but that's not the case.

We have to get used to the fact that the emergency level of the fed funds rate is behind us, ... The sooner we become cognizant of the fact that the global economy won't be crushed and corporate earnings won't roll over, the sooner the market will fight its way to trend higher.

I think we're going through this natural vacuum in the news cycle where we have a quiet economic calendar and the fourth-quarter earnings reports are slowing down. It's difficult to generate any interest in the market.

I think we'll see the stock market trying to price that (rate cuts) in the second quarter.

I'm thinking the Fed will leave the rates unchanged, ... We've ramped up pretty higher into this meeting and my concern is the psychological letdown if the rhetoric remains strong.