The reflection of what Cisco says is an absolute reflection of the economy. If Cisco is giving this forward look beyond the first quarter, then the suspicion of a possibility for a second half upturn may not be as evident.
The productivity number is key toward determining whether the economy can show some stabilization. We've seen weakening numbers, which hasn't helped, but there is no inflation story to talk about here.
The psychology is just not there for the economy to make any substantial move until we get through the Fed meeting. There's really no selling pressure, it's just tremendous volatility.
The problems are the same: Interest rates are high, and the economy is strong. It is affecting those sectors that are credit sensitive.
The payroll numbers were extraordinarily supportive for the economy. But counter to that, the report brings back the Fed and inflationary prospects, and that's why you see just a modest up day.
We seem to go from worries about the economy slowing down to appreciating that the economy remains strong and can bounce back from slower fourth-quarter GDP growth.
We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
Better-than-expected LEI implies a strong economy. It also implies higher interest rates.
Anything that shows the economy is slowing will be taken very well by the market. But the Fed is still out there and I don't think we should get used to the (idea) the Fed going to stop (raising rates) in June.
They're (investors) looking for the Fed to be absolutely aggressive and see the economy as slow as can be and to be measured in terms of understanding how important the consumer is at this point. And how important the stock market is to consumer confidence.
They're (investors) getting more confident in the economy yet I still say this is more of a psychological bottom put into effect, ... There's a good reason to believe that some profit-taking is in order ahead of the NAPM (National Association of Purchasing Mangers) numbers.
The intermediate background look in terms of interest rates peaking and the economy slowing to a more sustainable pace without any undue harm is slowly going to play itself out. I would be very shocked if the GDP came in anywhere higher than estimates because Wall Street is already expressing its confidence that the economy is slowing down.
Higher interest rates are an impediment to companies where cost is important and that's Old Economy stocks, ... What we are seeing is a defensive move into technology stocks.
I don't think the economy can really withstand the equity markets dropping down and giving back all of its gains ? that would really hamper consumer confidence. The one thing that has changed is psychology ? it's time to look forward to what the effect interest rate cuts mean for the economy.
The idea is that interest rates will affect the old-economy companies more, because they are more interest rate sensitive. You will probably have less of an effect on technology stocks, and there is a lot of bargain-hunting going on. I think investors are a little more comfortable coming into these blue chips down 30 percent.
The economy is already slowing down without the impact of that 50 basis point hike last month, and I think what you have to look at here is the ending of the interest rate cycle. The growth stocks are technology stocks. And at this time it's a very seasonal thing as well. We are coming to the end of the quarter, so you are going to just get the great stock into the portfolios and sell the weak ones.
The economy is still strong, earnings will be good, and that bodes well for the stock market,