Sen. Menendez has a 6-point lead in his race for re-election mainly because New Jersey is a Democratic state more fed up with the Bush administration and the war in Iraq than it is with high taxes and the budget crisis at home.
If voters are in a Florio anti-tax mood, his approval rating will suffer. If he's able to convince them that tax increases are necessary to maintain state services they want, then his approval rating, while not going up sharply, should not be too badly damaged.