When you take a look at what's happened in the last month, you see the same kind of pace?right on down the line. It shows a nice, steady moderate pace, which is what you want.
We're going to see people trimming their expenses here and there. They probably will not eat out as much or go to movies as often as they normally would. So restaurants and theaters are also vulnerable.
We boosted economic growth in one quarter, but that doesn't mean it's sustainable. We still have a long-range view that the economy is changing, and consumers will have to adjust to it.
There are no longer really state economic systems that can function by themselves. Most of our largest corporations are in every major market in the world. We're intertwined.
We had a very good year in 2005. But it was a nervous world.
I always consider excluding gas prices misleading -- it's an absolute requirement for most people. Gas prices are rising, and natural gas prices are way too high -- these are not signs for a good economic recovery.
I think consumers are more cautious, and I think the retailers have kept inventories well under control.
People are seeing we're not getting job growth, even though there have been a lot of promises of it. That's the key; for people to be satisfied, you have to have job growth.
June numbers were extremely strong, which suggests May's weakness really was the weather -- that it was not just an excuse.
We haven't yet seen the negative effect of gas prices on consumer spending. It's certainly not here in these numbers. That doesn't mean it's not there. Certainly the weekly retail sales numbers have been sluggish.
When it's as low as it was, it takes time to start turning it around. Today's report doesn't mean there's a boom, but it certainly is encouraging.
You do have a defensive consumer. If the consumer is very nervous and uncertain about what is going to be happening, you don't know how they're going to react.
There are parts of the world that are in darkness and that concerns me.
The PPI is just perfect. This is just what we wanted.
There are absolutely no price pressures in our system.
Besides the political issues, retailers interested in India have to understand the cultural differences and sensitivities. Ultimately India's still a very complicated world for Western companies to understand.
Corporate scandals, equity market problems, a lack of transparency, a lot of greed -- it was not just the Dow falling, it was all of these things that make people very, very nervous.
I see robins and the grass coming up and all kinds of nice signs. But it has to be proven.
I've been in the business 40 years...almost 40 years. I can tell you the leaks in 40 years and I won't even use all the fingers on one hand.
The whole key is whether or not (a war) ends quickly.
Probably Asia's diminishing a little bit. But I don't think that this suggests any kind of bad time or recession coming.
As long as suspense lingers, you will have a longer CNN effect. That's not what you want -- mood is very important for the retail world.
You want the consumer buoyant. Most consumers are not current-events oriented. When you get everybody involved in current events, when they usually are not, then people are not going to go out and buy things just for pleasure of it.
This is not a very pretty picture. The higher gasoline prices had more of an impact that most had expected.
A lot of people don't read newspapers, and we don't have 24 hours a day of CNN, MSNBC and Fox just pounding you with war news.
You don't want people to be cautious if you want them to buy. You want them relaxed and saying their troubles are behind them. This (employment) report doesn't suggest that.
They're getting nervous. They're getting angry. They have not really done anything about it because they want to see if there's going to be relief for it. But now they're aware of it.
It's a bad Christmas if you're a retailer. It's not a material Christmas. You can't forget this. I don't think the country can forget it.
It's the biggest market we have, because people don't live in empty houses.
It looks like a nice start but it's hard to tell, hard to have a perspective until we start seeing the cash register receipts. It's hard to tell, but it's perfect shopping weather.
Does that have economic implications? To me, the answer is yes. In a sense, we have to wait for recovery until this group wants to sleep with each other again.
Consumers right now are bargain hunters, and that's what Wal-Mart is talking about. If you're offering a bargain and the consumer thinks it will go away, you'll get the consumer to buy, but there is no impulse buying going on.
Consumers had a nice July and August. Unfortunately, they're on their own for the fourth quarter, which starts on Wednesday. Going into 2004, spending is going to be based on wage and salary growth, which needs a boost.
This is a very nervous country. How much it's going to dampen the economy, I don't know, but it's hard to see people relaxed and creating a boom.
The consumer, I think, is healing. There's still a lot of market share out there. I don't think we've drained anything away.
Housing starts would be much much higher if they could find the people to build the homes.
The uncertainty is there. It's dissipated, but it's just below the surface and can be rekindled. It plays a part in an economy full of very nervous people.
The five percent drop is shocking. It indicates that perhaps the consumer tax rebate stimulus that benefited retailers during the back-to-school season has petered out.
The economy is generally chugging along. From the consumers' perspective, jobs remain an important issue. Consumers will also be keeping an eye on gas prices and what happening on the global front in terms of terrorism.
The economy's long-range future is excellent, and we have a lot of things going for us. But we're waiting for the water to boil, and you can get very flustered if you watch water boil.
The current average price of $1.90 a gallon is still about 40 cents higher than the level a year ago. So the effect of higher prices will be felt for some time.
