The trouble with institutional investors is that their performance is usually measured relative to their peer group and not by an absolute yardstick. This makes them trend followers by definition.
Find the trend whose premise is false, and bet against it.
Once a trend is established it tends to persist and to run it’s full course.
Short term volatility is greatest at turning points and diminishes as a trend becomes established
Economic history is a never-ending series of episodes based on falsehoods and lies, not truths. It represents the path to big money. The object is to recognize the trend whose premise is false, ride that trend and step off before it is discredited.
Every bubble has two components: something - some real trend, and a misconception about that trend.