The Red Sox won four games in a row after being down three nothing, so anything is possible,but I think the markets would perceive this as a long shot. I think at some point today (Wednesday) Kerry and his people get together and decide they don't want to be perceived as sore losers.
Things aren't as bad as Jason (Furman) said but they're not as good as the labor secretary said, ... The markets clearly were expecting a better number than 96,000. You've got to wonder ... are corporations sending us a signal that the underlying economy is not as good as people thought?
Right now the markets are viewing this as if it's going to be quick and painless.
This is not comparable to 2000. If we were talking 3,000 or 4,000 votes, it'd be a big story. But I think the markets will perceive this as a temporary delay of the inevitable.
That's a commentary that the markets think the bigger concern is the soft patch, not inflation, ... Nobody knows how big a soft patch this is. The key to understanding a lot of this is obviously the price of oil.
That may be one of reason (the Dow is) 9,800 -- maybe the markets have already begun to worry about the outcome not being known.
I'm up to a one-in-three chance that we will not know for days who won the election. And it could really drag on through December again. It's a cliche but it's a true cliche, that markets don't like uncertainty.
If you look at who the markets would be the most comfortable with, and that has to be one of the top criteria, then Feldstein has got to be the No. 1 pick,
The markets would be perfectly happy with gridlock.
The markets until recently have been oblivious to the possibility of a Kerry win.