We're forecasting oil will grind higher up to $33, ... with an ultimate spike up to $40 a barrel on the outbreak of hostilities.
A significant amount of refined products will remain off the market for some time to come, and will prevent heating oil and gasoline stockpiles from being replenished, at least for the next few weeks,
Demand destruction fears are trumping fears about damage to oil facilities. It's not just Katrina that is hurting demand. High prices have strained economies, especially in Asia, and demand is being curtailed as a result.
The moderate weather is really helping push prices lower, ... There are no signs that OPEC will cut back on output, which has jumped to near records. As long as the oil keeps coming and demand languishes, I see no reason for prices to rise.
This isn't enough to break the back of high oil prices.
The biggest disappointment is that oil is not getting out of the north which is supposed to be Kurdish-controlled.