Ken Goldstein Pace Quotations

The small but consistent decreases in the past three-month period certainly point to a second-half economic performance less robust than in the first half of 2000. With employment and income still rising, there will be growth, but not at the pace set earlier in the year.

Signals for the immediate future point to continued expansion, although not at the breakneck pace of the fourth quarter of 1999, ... The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion continues to be interest-rate increases and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve Board action.

Consumers are concerned that wages are not keeping pace with inflation, and managers feel they can't raise prices. It's difficult to imagine how both can be satisfied in 2006.

The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.

The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead, perhaps in the spring, which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006.

The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.

The latest leading indicator readings suggest some slowing in the pace of economic activity through this summer.

The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.

The leading economic indicators began to lose a little momentum before the hurricanes and flooding. Domestically, business investment appeared to be headed toward a moderate pace in the third quarter.

The Leading Economic Index, however, rose sharply in three of the last four months. That could be a signal of a faster pace this spring.