Ken Goldstein Quotations

The performance of the leading index is suggestive of continued momentum or growth in the spring.

We're really creating an arms-length relationship with Disney. It's a big deal, and the only way to go for a media company.

With the price of a barrel of oil rising above $70, and with interest rates slowly increasing, the global economy isn't likely to be picking up steam soon.

We've seen the trade deficit widen each of the last four years at relatively the same pace. What's going to happen because of Asian flu is it will widen twice as fast this year as it did each of the last four years.

There are a lot of factors here, but more than anything else, we haven't had a full jobs recovery, and the consumer is waiting for that. These numbers reflect they're kind of running out of patience.

We might be out of recession already. The recovery could be more vigorous than earlier anticipated.

Severe weather conditions and uncertainty over interest rates may help explain why the rise in the indicators was cut short.

Signals for the immediate future point to continued expansion, although not at the breakneck pace of the fourth quarter of 1999, ... The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion continues to be interest-rate increases and the prospect of still more Federal Reserve Board action.

One of the things this points out is that we're on the road to recovery, but the road is going to be bumpy -- it always is.

Nothing is going to happen in terms of improving confidence until something happens in terms of an improving labor market, and that might well take until after New Year's.

I don't know where they are going to stop, and I don't know that they know.

Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.

If all we've had is consumption, not business investment, there could be a self-fulfilling factor here, ... If consumers run out of patience, they start trimming sales a bit, and the economy, rather than picking up, may weaken a bit. Then the consumer says, 'See, I told you it was going to happen.'

I don't think we're back to a stable employment level; we're in for another decline, certainly in manufacturing employment. This should be the best month in the past three, but that's damning with faint praise, given how bad March and April were.

Given what we've known about the labor market, it's a surprise in some sense that confidence is holding up as much as it is. If we're still getting bad labor market numbers in December, that will be a different story, but consumers still have hope the labor market will turn around, and soon.

If we were starting from scratch and had to put all these systems in, that would be costly, but the incremental cost of making sure we have the latest version of protection against the latest version of a virus is not really that much.

If the economy cools a little, the labor market may also cool. Even if energy prices were not going through the roof, the biggest road block would still be the cost of a new hire.

Historically, job advertising drops off in the months of November and December. This online series does not have a long enough history to seasonally adjust the data. However, we know from The Conference Board's long running Help-Wanted Index for print ads, as well as the Federal Bureau of Labor Statistics' job vacancy index (JOLTS) that businesses typically decrease their recruitment in the last two months of the year. This seasonal November decline typically reflects the Thanksgiving holiday and a slowdown in recruitments after a seasonal upturn in the late summer/early fall. Year-end budget constraints may also play a role if funds are short for paid advertisements. Nationally, the downturn in new online ad volume the week before and the week of Thanksgiving more than offset the modest increases in the other weeks in November.

It can't just smell like a recession - it has to smell, look and taste like one.

I think we are going to get consistent job growth. The signals we're getting suggest we're on the road to better growth. Unless something else happens, then perhaps in a few months, we will finally get some good news in the labor market.

People are doing what they want. A lot of the companies that are using these people are doing what they can do profitably.

Overall economic momentum is no longer firing on all cylinders. And hiring intentions this summer are suggestive that companies may not increase hiring until the economy regains more solid footing.

Rising business costs and uncertainty in many companies about price hikes is a major consideration now in how fast the domestic economy can grow, especially in the second half of the year.

Part of the real story here is that, through July, producers were still getting more output, with fewer labor hours put in. Productivity in the third quarter is probably going to be stronger than in the second quarter, confirming the idea that, while the stock market's not in good shape, the overall economy's not that bad.

Some of the department store sales don't make sense to me,

The overall Leading Economic Indicators began to edge down in July, suggesting the economy was losing steam this summer and would continue to slow down in the fall.

We discovered for the umpteenth time that what matters most for most Americans is the labor market.

Today's conditions are similar to those prevailing in the late 1980s, when there were also widespread reports of jobs available and no one to fill them.

The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.

To me, that could well prove a more important issue than the impact of Katrina,

The recovery in the leading index could indicate that the economy is poised for growth by late summer. There appears to be enough economic demand to end the slide in industrial production, though no strong rebound appears in sight.

With slower hiring, and indications that hiring might remain soft in the months ahead, the economy could struggle, setting up a self-fulfilling prophecy.

What we are going to get is people grumbling about it -- maybe buying one less latte -- but they're not going to forego buying that new TV.

We might still be seeing some small declines in manufacturing overall, but even that's a mix. This year you'll see more hiring in nondurable manufacturing sectors such as in chemicals, in rubber, in plastics, in paper.

Both investment and hiring intentions reflect a level of caution over both pricing and profit strategies.

Down the road, there are significant consequences in terms of what could be developing with the federal budget.

Essentially the story is we have got moderate growth through the first quarter. We may tick up in the second quarter and we may tick down in the third quarter. Growth is going to be a little slower second half of the year.

There's no sign that spending is going to take off, but there's also nothing to show that consumers, finished with back to school spending, are going to put their hands back in their pockets and leave them there.

There's nothing wrong with the economy right now. That's not the issue,

The trend, though, in Columbus is picking up over the last few months.

The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.

These data suggest the post-holiday labor market will remain relatively soft -- probably delivering a little less than 200,000 new jobs a month on average.

The storms and flooding, and now the rebuilding and dislocations in the Gulf Coast area, are taking place in a weakening national labor market.

The small but consistent decreases in the past three-month period certainly point to a second-half economic performance less robust than in the first half of 2000. With employment and income still rising, there will be growth, but not at the pace set earlier in the year.

The strong signal from the indicators means that the recession could be over soon. Three successive monthly increases, each larger than the one before, bring the level of the leading series above the pre-recession peak.

The spike in energy prices is another major factor changing the direction of the economy, worsened by a decline in confidence by both consumers and chief executives.

The significant increase in the leading indicators during the last six months, tempered only by the financially related pause in February, points to forward momentum in this expansion.

The tax cuts are being proposed as permanent cuts,

The three things that most concern consumers are jobs, jobs and jobs.

Productivity is the wild card. It's the one thing that has kept the tension between prices and wages on a low simmer.

Add this to the negative impact of the hurricanes and flooding, resulting in lost jobs and incomes, and lost output, and we could be in for slower growth through the end of the year.

A weakening national situation is not good news for the Gulf Coast area. Some workers seem reluctant to move to an area where the labor market was already weak.

That the index is starting to turn more positive is telling us to look for a better economic outlook overall as early as spring.

A large portion of the declines in ads in November and December are seasonal declines as businesses cut back recruitment ads during the holiday season.

This is not a party-line vote, either. Groups on the left and the right are joined together in fighting this attack on the first amendment.

This could be a signal that the economy will continue to expand this spring before slowing later in the year.

There was cautious optimism a month ago that manufacturing declines might have been bottoming out, ... Now, in the wake of the attacks, economic demand seems likely to slow.

They're saying the economy stinks this summer, for whatever reason, but their anticipation is that it will turn for the better.

The number of job ads per 100 participants in the labor force is consistently highest on the West and East coasts and in the Mountain area.

It's the equivalent of a Disney Channel of broadband interactive content. It's become a good business for Disney. Our goal is to be as ubiquitous as the Disney Channel.

It's probably just some reversal of earlier losses. I'm not sure that it's anything more fundamental than that, although its pretty encouraging.

Consumer spending remains the mainstay of this weak economic recovery. With tax cuts enacted, the consumer is likely to continue hanging in there. But a real recovery, including a slowdown in layoffs and the opening of new jobs, is far more dependent on recovery in (business) investment than on stronger consumption growth.

Consumer sentiment about job prospects over the next six months dipped in January. Thus, not only are the indicators suggesting modest gains in hiring, but consumers also do not think more new jobs will start opening up this spring.

Consumers are concerned that wages are not keeping pace with inflation, and managers feel they can't raise prices. It's difficult to imagine how both can be satisfied in 2006.

Consumer income remains very strong and now there are bargain prices for a lot of new products that are just coming out to the market, big new computers, new DVD audio equipment,

That's about as good as it gets for the next six months. We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.

That's about as good as it gets for the next six months, ... We're about to downshift at least one gear, especially with respect to the job market.

The biggest risk to the ongoing expansion, which in June will be in its record 111th month, remains the interest-rate increases at hand and the prospect of still more action by the Federal Reserve Board, ... The data suggest that some sectors may be beginning to respond to Fed tightening.

The balance will eventually change, but these numbers suggest the caution businesses have been showing is warranted. They also say we might be waiting until early 2004 before we see much stronger business investment.

The two-month decline in the index suggests that the already-weak economy is likely to remain weak into next year.

This is confirming the idea that, while the stock market's not in good shape, the overall economy's not in bad shape; it's nowhere near going into a double dip.

The labor market remains on a high plateau that has prevailed in the last year and a half.

The labor market picture remains a bit cloudy. There are some bright spots where the job market may be picking up, but it's by no means a clear picture.

The labor market may finally be hitting bottom. While layoffs remain large, they are no longer intensifying. Job advertising volume has stopped declining, although it remains at very low levels.

The labor market indicators turned a little more positive this summer.

The labor market indicators reflect a loss of economic momentum, even eliminating the impact of the storms and flooding.

The Fed will act sooner rather than later, more rather than less,

In all of the data, the road is up, but we're going to hit a couple of speed bumps along the way. I'm not sure the Michigan index is reflecting anything more serious than one of those speed bumps.

Iowa is the center of the advertising storm. This is where it's going on.

begin to make way for a better economy this fall.

High and potentially rising energy prices are one consideration in this outlook. Rising costs and questions about whether they will be matched by price hikes are also a factor in how fast the economy grows this spring.

You can't read a double dip into this, especially because so much of this is related to the stock market, rather than to the overall economy, ... The coincident index tells us where we are, which is in recovery. It's not really strong, but we're staying in it.

The underlying story here is that we have this strong job growth, ... if we continue to have strong job growth - and I think we will - then we will continue to see those wage levels push up.

This is a jab, it's not a haymaker, ... What we see here in March is probably the end of it.

The flat pace in the leading indicators points to continued moderation in U.S. economic activity. This is reflected in indicators for manufacturing, housing, consumer, labor, and financial markets. The economy is starting to reflect the impact of growth restraints.

The healthcare area is in need of a wide range of workers. There are new ads for doctors, nurses, and technicians as well as the full range of support personnel from top executives and management jobs to records clerks, secretaries, food service and general administrative support.

The indicators may be signaling a spurt of growth ahead, perhaps in the spring, which could be followed by a slower pace of activity later in 2006.

The Indicators are pointing to significantly slower growth in the first half of 2001, ... The economy continues to cool off and there are now some job vacancies with no one to fill them. More recently, both businesses and consumers have become somewhat more cautious.

The economy has been on a little bit of a seesaw, where we have had a softer fourth quarter, perhaps (a) still somewhat soft first quarter, with some improvements certainly for the second quarter.

The economy is growing now, but not as fast as it did last year before the hurricanes.

The combination of three bucks a gallon for gas and what the rest of the country is looking at on TV and hearing about and reading about certainly are not positives.

The coincident economic indicators have been rising moderately but steadily in recent months, suggesting the economy is sustaining a relatively moderate pace.

All the folks writing stories about the double dip ought to just delete that file. There are no guarantees, but the train is leaving the station.

The latest readings on print want-ad volume suggest that job growth won't reach the 200,000-a-month pace for at least the next few months.

The latest leading indicator readings suggest some slowing in the pace of economic activity through this summer.

The leading indicators are cooling off from the rapid pace registered at the end of last year. This is not the kind of performance to be expected when gross domestic product grew by 5.2 percent, as it did in the second quarter of 2000.

The leading economic indicators suggest moderate growth into the fall.

The Leading Economic Indicators have been anything but consistent -- flat to declining from July through September, and recovering in October and November.

The leading economic indicators began to lose a little momentum before the hurricanes and flooding. Domestically, business investment appeared to be headed toward a moderate pace in the third quarter.

The Leading Economic Index suggests that this period of slower growth will probably continue for the next few months.