Ken Goldstein Confidence Quotations

Nothing is going to happen in terms of improving confidence until something happens in terms of an improving labor market, and that might well take until after New Year's.

Given that we're at least a couple of months away from turnaround in the labor market, the fact that consumer confidence is not doing much worse than treading water is actually a good-news story.

Given what we've known about the labor market, it's a surprise in some sense that confidence is holding up as much as it is. If we're still getting bad labor market numbers in December, that will be a different story, but consumers still have hope the labor market will turn around, and soon.

The fact that the January number is back up to the higher level we saw in August 2005 indicates that the demand for labor is holding steady and seems to have weathered the hurricane and energy-related effects of last fall. The January online help-wanted ad volume is consistent with what we are seeing from the Consumer Confidence Survey. In January, consumers were more upbeat about current economic conditions, and they were especially more positive about the job market.

The September data indicate a general weakening in the job picture nationwide -- a trend we were seeing before the recent hurricanes, ... That data is consistent with the latest CEO Confidence Survey, which is also down.

The spike in energy prices is another major factor changing the direction of the economy, worsened by a decline in confidence by both consumers and chief executives.