Iran matters more than is currently priced in and Iran's external relations remain the key wild card. We continue to see the situation as representing the major upside risk for oil prices this year.
Weather continues to be the key short term factor determining energy price direction.
U.S. oil inventories have risen rapidly, relative to normal patterns over the last four weeks. At the level of politics and geopolitical risks, the shadows have continued to gather and darken.
We would expect the potential for further chaos in Nigeria to provide a floor for prices above $60, and we expect that Nigeria will continue to be a major issue in terms of supply security.