We've lost 450,000 barrels a day of production, which is significant. Shell hasn't given us much of an idea of when they will be able to restore output. This is a pretty reasonable reaction given that we don't know how long it will be before the production is back to normal.
The recovery continues to be slow. Government reserves will more than make up for reduced production but they will eventually have to be replaced. This will probably end up being the most damaging storm to the industry by far.
Offshore production is coming back very slowly. Problems with power have left a number of refineries shut since Rita. This reinforces the very bullish mentality of the market.
This certainly highlights what the bulls have been trumpeting. It is not known whether any actual production will be affected. Uncertainty and fear abound in this market.
The market (has) a slightly lower bias. Production curtailments in the Gulf remain supportive, while demand factors must now be considered.