Nigeria isn't enough to continue to push crude oil prices higher due to current ample supplies in the U.S.. Gasoline inventories remain above the upper end of the five-year range since early February.
Supplies in the U.S. have been rising, leaving the market unsupportive of higher oil prices. Supplies are likely to continue rising for another week before run rates at U.S refineries come down and imports slow.
With oil at this price level, we can definitely expect a cut in output. OPEC was only barred from doing so previously because of higher prices.
Even considering higher demand, there's been a rapid growth in gasoline stockpiles.
Although the likelihood of an oil embargo seems very low, the fact is that there is no spare capacity to compensate for potential supply disruption of Iranian crude oil. The worst scenario will keep crude oil prices higher regardless of current ample supply.