We are headed for a Katrina-induced soft patch, but I would not interpret this as the early warning of a recession.
The big uncertainty is how much of a hit the housing marketing will take. Is it going to be a hard landing or a soft landing? I worry about that much more than I worry about high fuel prices right now.
The labor market is growing at a pretty good pace. We're clearly seeing a rebound in the economy from the soft spot we experienced in the fourth quarter, and I think we'll see payroll growth similar to last year.
The Fed seems to have engineered a soft landing.
A lot will depend on how weak housing gets, in terms of whether we go into a real soft patch or not. That's the key here.