Higher oil prices and a strong dollar will push the trade deficit to new record highs, with the monthly trade deficit likely exceeding $75 billion by mid 2006.
I don't expect consumers here will really see a 10 percent movement on the prices of imported goods, ... But for exporters, that 10 percent is very real.
Gasoline prices did rise in January. Spot prices for natural gas fell in December and January, but it is not clear how much of these markdowns filtered through to homeowners and commercial consumers.
The higher import prices are starting to bite and the lower import prices are starting to have an effect,' ... I think we can start to wind our way down to about $20 billion.
As long as housing prices don't go down, consumers have more equity they can borrow against. If mortgage rates go up another 1.25 or 1.5 percent and pierce 7 percent -- watch out. That's when the housing bubble bursts and consumers would cut back on spending a lot.