Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
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When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
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We've fallen far short of prior economic expansions, ... We're about 5-1/2 million (jobs) short of where would be today if this were a typical expansion.
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We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
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While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.
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The good news is that if so many people are entering the labor force it must mean that they are perceiving an improvement in the economy's prospects, ... The bad news, however, is that if too many people become optimistic about their job prospects, then the unemployment rate will continue to push higher. And the higher unemployment rate does have a damaging impact on consumers. They see it and they think, 'I shouldn't be spending money.' That's one of reason the unemployment rate is so important. It's the one that drives what happens on main street.
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Unfortunately, I don't think it's a job for Alan Greenspan.
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This report is actually quite favorable for financial markets since we see very little inflation pressure while simultaneously seeing job creation inching up,
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When the economy is creating 200,000 new jobs a month, we can tolerate $65 to $70 a barrel oil. It masks the impact on consumer confidence.
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We will continue on this jobless path, where we're not creating enough jobs to make a real difference to the economy, for at least another six to nine months.
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It appears as though the level of job security is rising and that's a very encouraging thing to consumers, ... Consumers are spending more on general merchandise as well as on eating out. People don't go out to restaurants a lot if they're not feeling good about their economic situation.
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I think it's fair to say it'll be the least important or most distorted jobs report in memory. Maybe both.
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Preliminary estimates indicate 60 percent damage to downtown New Orleans. Plenty of cleanup work and rebuilding will follow in all the areas. That means over the next 12 months, there will be lots of job creation which is good for the economy.