Anthony Chan
Anthony Chan
declare good labor market news report says strong turning
This report is good news because it says the labor market is turning the corner, but it's still not strong enough to declare victory.
certainly panic pause pipeline pressures report saying says slam urgency
The report is certainly encouraging. It says there's no urgency to panic about inflation. But that's not the same as saying there's justification for a pause. This is all pre-Katrina. There's enough pipeline pressures out there to say that a pause is not a slam dunk.
clears future investors likely listening monetary path says
Investors will be intently listening to see if he says anything that clears up what the future monetary path is likely to be,
basically case jobs million missing stage
We're basically missing 5.1 million jobs at this stage of the expansion. You could even call it the case of the missing jobs, ... different paradigm.
admit continue eye fairly far federal funds greenspan notion percentage quarter quickly raise rate rates risen
Yes, Greenspan does admit the obvious, that the real federal funds rate has risen considerably, but he quickly concludes that the rate 'remains fairly low'. This is Fed-speak for the notion that the Fed will continue to raise rates by a quarter percentage point...as far as the eye can see.
anywhere conclude hard labor market near rise
With the rise in the unemployment rate, it is hard to conclude that the labor market is anywhere near out of the woods.
assured continue fed higher markets push rates remain short term
With this figure, markets can remain all but assured that the Fed will continue to push short term rates higher well into 2006.
far makers policy remain
We're still far from deflation, but not far from a deceleration in inflation, and that's why policy makers have to remain vigilant.
early expect fed historic near pick rate results savings seen starting though work
We're starting to see the savings rate pick up from near historic levels, which is very encouraging. Though we don't expect Fed tightening to work overnight, we are starting to see some of the early results of the significant tightening we've seen to date.
economic expansion job losses normal signs transition until
While job losses may be ebbing, we have yet to see any signs of outsized hiring. This will not come ... until we transition from a slow-growing expansion to a normal economic recovery.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy. In 2000, we're going to see more of a gradualist policy.
basically
What this does is basically vindicate Greenspan's policy,
battery conclusion despite effects energy exclude higher job market prices recent
When we exclude the effects of the recent hurricanes, we have to come away with the conclusion that despite higher energy prices and a battery of hurricanes, the job market is not doing all that bad.
add confident empty environment growth inventory knows rising shelves suggest
The plunge in inventory accumulation does suggest that firms are not confident enough to add merchandise to their shelves. But they will not be able to do this indefinitely because everyone knows that sporting empty shelves in a rising growth environment is not prudent.