Barry Hyman
Barry Hyman
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What you are seeing is the likelihood that interest rates will not go higher next week, making it easier to give these big cap growth stocks high valuations.
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What will frame investor decision-making in August is going to be totally Fed-driven. We've gotten the anecdotal comments from Mr. Greenspan that we can achieve a slower growth landing but we now have to see that anecdotal evidence turn into fact.
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We've accepted the fact that the earnings growth for the quarter is around 20, 21 percent year-over-year for the S&P. But there's been this behind the scenes look or under the surface look at revenue. And we haven't got the best of forecasts for the second half of the year in many companies going forward. And if you don't have that pristine look -- where you come in this earnings season totally clean -- you've gotten battered. And I can't even name more than a handful of stocks that have come through.
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You have to be careful. There are not many sectors that are doing well out there. This is a slowing economy. People are looking for security of earnings. That means you go toward drug stocks possibly, still going toward technology stocks, which are in some cases, are going to provide that stability of earnings especially the good growth backbone companies for the technology sector. Avoid cyclical stocks, avoid retail stocks. Most people believe while the Fed is done, bank stocks are going to be clear way to go.
growth
We do think growth is going to be the place to be again,
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We're supported by a rebounding economy after a weaker fourth quarter, and recently lower oil prices. But that's countered by concerns about slower earnings growth and higher inflation.
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We're not at the beginning of a decline. We don't believe you're about to enter another horrendous down phase in the market measured by the Nasdaq. We think there are some tough times ahead over the next one to three months. But if you take a longer view of that, many of these companies in the Nasdaq big cap are starting to come down to levels that look fairly attractive on a growth basis.
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Growth stocks on the large cap front with perceived consistent earnings can be looked at as better values.
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Most of the growth stories are not performing today and that is how we'll go into the Fed meeting. There's still very little conviction in the market.
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I believe that the future of McDonald's is going to be their international growth. Let's not forget what President Bush is trying to do in Russia. Russia eventually is going to have to be our friend versus all this nonsense terrorism that's going on in the world, ... So, does the overseas market concern me? It doesn't because they are looking to marginalize that growth of 1-to-2 percent and diversify at the same time. I think the bad things are behind it and I like the stock.
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Global markets are the best investment at this point. The growth story developing globally is strong, the companies have better valuations, and the trend is doing well.
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It is just an affirmation that the Nasdaq represents the growth sector of the investment universe. That is where much money is being put to work the last month.