Chris Probyn
Chris Probyn
busy duration fed hard hurricane information last next pause size week weeks whereas
There's now a possibility of a pause whereas last week I would have described the thought as lunacy. But this does not necessarily portend a pause, ... The Fed will be busy in the next two weeks to come up with as much hard information as to the size and duration of the hurricane effect.
countries haven obviously oil producing safe
Treasuries are a safe haven and obviously a place where oil producing countries could place money.
across exports impact indirect oil ripple
The US absorbs exports from across the world. So there will be ripple effects, as well as the indirect impact of the oil price.
clever economics quite
This was quite a clever statement. They get economics out of the way and that's pretty accurate.
certainly consistent consumer economic fourth growth number relative smaller spending
This was a disappointing number relative to expectations and certainly consistent with the idea that consumer spending is going to be a much smaller contributor to economic growth in the fourth quarter.
act crisis degree economy effects excellent fed greater hurricane katrina management mean november pause prospects severe time
This is a Fed that has demonstrated excellent crisis management skills. But by the time we come to November, the Fed should be able to act with a greater degree of confidence. A pause in November would mean a severe downgrade in the prospects for the economy while tightening in November would show that the effects of Hurricane Katrina were probably temporary.
continues economy looks move resilience rolling shown
This doesn't look like an economy that's rolling over. This looks like an economy that has shown resilience and continues to move ahead.
changed definitely likely situation
It suggests that the situation has not changed so much so that they are definitely done. They are more likely to tighten in March.
amount buy continued foreigners securities united
Foreigners continued to buy a considerable amount of securities here in the United States.
above economy fed growing impending minutes november pause raise rates sign taken wants
The November minutes were taken as a sign of an impending pause and I don't think the Fed wants to give that message. If the economy is still growing fast, they may have to raise rates above 5 percent.
cold faster fed growth hot keeps percent stays
I think the Fed keeps going as long as GDP growth stays between 3 percent and 4 percent. That would be not too hot to make them go faster or too cold to make them pause,
bond finally higher market needs pressure rates respond
The higher that rates go from here, the more the bond market needs to respond to them. The bond market should finally respond to upward pressure on long-term rates.