Dean Maki
Dean Maki
economies foreign further likely reverse strength though trend
Even though foreign economies are strengthening, it won't be enough strength to reverse the trend in trade, and we're likely to see further deterioration.
across fed likely raise rates strength suggest
The strength across all labor-market indicators does suggest the Fed will likely raise rates in March.
certain continue economy growth housing notable parts question reports strength suggest whether
First-quarter growth is going to be very strong, so the question now is whether that strength is going to continue. These reports suggest that at least certain parts of the economy aren't going to continue accelerating, with housing being the most notable example.
becomes clear continuing curve economic economy-and-economics expect flat growth robust time yield
We do not think the flat yield curve is signaling economic weakness. We do expect it will become steeper over time as it becomes clear economic growth is continuing at a robust pace.
actual continued fewer interpret less prices sell willing
One way to interpret it is that sellers may have only been willing to sell if they got the prices they were expecting. Fewer got that, so there were less actual transactions as prices continued to rise.
continue falling happening increases likely number prices rate seems slow
What seems to be happening is the number of transactions has been falling but prices continue to grow. Over time, the rate of price increases is likely to slow this year.
change number trade
This trade number doesn't change that at all.
consumers continue decline gasoline job market normal pace prices retail seem
Consumers are benefiting from the decline in retail gasoline prices and that should continue going forward. The job market does seem to be improving, or at least getting back into a more normal pace after the hurricanes.
affected appears holidays imports looks move temporary timing
It looks like a temporary move lower. It appears that imports were affected by the timing of holidays in Asia.
data january likely since
They are likely to acknowledge the firmer data since the January meeting.
appears bring definitely generating jobs labor market process rate
It's definitely a labor market that's generating enough jobs to bring down the unemployment rate over time. That process was interrupted by the hurricanes and appears to be resuming.
bring demand domestic dramatic trade
You would need a dramatic slowdown in domestic U.S. demand to bring down the U.S. trade deficit, and we think that is unlikely.
begun change housing indicate picture report robust slow starts
The report does not change the picture of robust housing starts in the first quarter, but it does indicate that starts have begun to slow notably from the weather-driven January-February surge.
affected areas claims drop economic effects hurricane labor market remain spreading starting weakness
Labor market weakness isn't spreading from the hurricane- affected areas to other areas of the country. We are starting to see hurricane-related claims drop off, and more important for the economic outlook, jobless claims excluding the hurricane effects remain low.