Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson
Hugh Johnson OBEis a British author and expert on wine. He is considered the world's best-selling wine writer. His 1961 tasting of a bottle of 1540 Steinwein from the German vineyard Würzburger Stein is considered to potentially be one of the oldest wines to have ever been tasted...
ProfessionNon-Fiction Author
Date of Birth10 March 1939
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When it appears as though the governors of the Federal Reserve believe that the end of the rate increases is near, that's very good news for investors. A lack of ambiguity from the Federal Reserve is always a little bit of a shocker.
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The good news was good enough to more than offset the worries about wages and Federal Reserve policy. There is an emotional component to the market today. Some speculative spirits are starting to stir.
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Long-term interest rates are low and I'd prefer to buy when rates are higher and more attractive. As a federal government issuer or taxpayer, I'd be excited but, as an investor, I just don't see the appeal.
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It's very clear that higher energy prices are now being passed along to consumers, and it's not difficult to do that when the economy is as strong as it is. This will put additional pressure on the Federal Reserve to continue to raise short-term interest rates.
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Everybody is going to know the same, but it's going to be less. The disclosure of information becomes more carefully managed than the Federal Reserve manages the disclosure of information.
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Clearly the Federal Reserve is getting what it wanted with six interest rate increases.
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I don't think it changes anything for Federal Reserve policy. Various early warning signs of inflation are still telling us they have to raise interest rates by 50 basis points and they are likely to do so when they meet next week.
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The underlying theme that's been driving the market is that inflation is a problem and the Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates, and that's not good news.
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The market is worried that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates well into 2006 and possibly make a policy mistake. If you look at housing starts they're very strong. Everyone knows the unemployment rate is low and the Fed is uncomfortable with that.