Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson
Ian Shepherdson is an award-winning British economist. He is the founder and Chief Economist of Pantheon Macroeconomics, an economic research firm located in Newcastle, England, with an office in White Plains, New York. In February 2015, he was named The Wall Street Journal's US economic forecaster of the year for the second time, having previously won the award in 2003...
data expect fourth increase last month percent rose spending suggest
The data suggest real consumers' spending rose marginally last month -- but we still expect only a 1.5 percent annualized increase in the fourth quarter,
confirm cost data expected generating labor market percent pressures sort
The data confirm that the labor market is still not generating the sort of cost pressures many analysts expected with 4 percent unemployment.
call pauses sales seen soon
We've seen pauses in sales before; (it's) too soon to call this a trend.
across areas country data economy few hit next number outside state sure week weeks
We have no real idea what the number next week will be, but we can be pretty sure that for the next few weeks the data will tell us next to nothing about the state of the economy across the country outside the areas hit by the storm.
remain soft spots survey
The only soft spots in the survey remain inventories and employment, but they will recover.
claims climb layoffs months pattern recent similar slow sudden
The pattern in claims in recent months is strikingly similar to 1990 -- a long slow climb and then a sudden acceleration as layoffs accelerated,
albeit bound breach consumers current economy few level matter next numbers percent spending suggest view
With unemployment set to breach 6 percent over the next few months, people's view of the current economy is bound to deteriorate, ... But expectations are what matter for spending, and at this level the numbers suggest consumers spending will rise, albeit not rapidly.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down. The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
anytime existing homes housing lack market means mortgage prices quickly rates rise sales sign simply supply turned
There is, in short, no sign that the housing market has turned down, ... The lack of supply of existing homes simply means that prices will rise more quickly -- and with mortgage rates at just over 8 percent, there won't be any slowdown in home sales anytime soon.
light
There is at least some light at the end of the tunnel, but unfortunately it is still a long way off,
certainly economy report serious slowing suggest
There is certainly nothing in this report to suggest any serious slowing, or any slowing at all, in the economy is near.
absent december degree depend february meetings moves pace policy potential reference specific suggesting
There is a specific reference in February to 'the pace of policy moves at upcoming meetings ... would depend on incoming data', suggesting a degree of potential flexibility that was absent from the December minutes,