Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
backdrop creating fed four interest last low played
Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.
base fear form maybe rally
Maybe now there's enough fear out there to form a base to rally again.
believe economic fed improving infer jobs moderate oil past perhaps prices somewhat statement time
I would infer from the statement that the Fed is somewhat more sanguine on the economic recovery. Perhaps they believe that $55 oil prices are, at least for the time being, something of the past and that jobs are just improving at a moderate pace.
ahead bets clues economy expect growth investors number traders
I would not expect investors and traders to make any big bets ahead of the number tomorrow. It clues us in on growth in the economy but also inflation.
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Gold is creating a psychological dark cloud over the market. With gold on the upside and inflation fears, the numbers we get tomorrow will clarify some of these concerns.
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Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
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I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
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What I worry about is that if the Fed continues to tighten, they could commit the same error they have done every time since 1980 and cause a financial crisis.
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With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
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Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
although energy fed guidance higher key looking might prices profit rolling signs
But the key here is really going to be guidance. Everyone is looking for signs of the rolling over of profit growth, although not as much as the Fed or higher energy prices might indicate.
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When you have strong growth and low wages, the chief beneficiary is corporate America.
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The projected job growth number would mark a pretty strong snapback from the previous month.
options
You have to look at all the options you have available, from A to Z.