Jack Ablin
Jack Ablin
believe economic fed improving infer jobs moderate oil past perhaps prices somewhat statement time
I would infer from the statement that the Fed is somewhat more sanguine on the economic recovery. Perhaps they believe that $55 oil prices are, at least for the time being, something of the past and that jobs are just improving at a moderate pace.
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Confidence is slipping, manufacturing is slowing, and even with today's jobs report, the employment trend is still negative. The bet here is that the Federal Reserve will have to stop raising rates in order to keep the economy from sliding further.
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If there is anything more than 250,000 jobs then everything reverses and all bets about a pause at 3.25 percent are off,
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Any bad news can throw us, and the jobs report was perceived as bad news, seen as a sign that the recovery is fragile, but that's not necessarily true. In the last two recessions, a pickup in employment only happened a year after the recession had ended. So just because unemployment is higher doesn't mean we're not on track for a recovery.
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Over the last four years the Fed has played the part of a surrealistic painter, creating a dreamy backdrop with generously low interest rates.
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Maybe now there's enough fear out there to form a base to rally again.
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I would not expect investors and traders to make any big bets ahead of the number tomorrow. It clues us in on growth in the economy but also inflation.
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Gold is creating a psychological dark cloud over the market. With gold on the upside and inflation fears, the numbers we get tomorrow will clarify some of these concerns.
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Fundamentally, I think the stock market is fairly valued, but there are a lot of issues around that are causing investor concern.
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I don't view the market as risky or dangerous even in spite of more Fed tightening. We have enough value in U.S. and international growth stocks. What's holding stocks back right now is uncertainty about interest rates, not valuation.
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What I worry about is that if the Fed continues to tighten, they could commit the same error they have done every time since 1980 and cause a financial crisis.
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With light volume, we're going to bounce around like a ping-pong ball. I wouldn't take any moves this week as a clear indication of anything.
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Between leading indicators and subdued inflation expectations, it's really set a nice backdrop for the market today,
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But the key here is really going to be guidance. Everyone is looking for signs of the rolling over of profit growth, although not as much as the Fed or higher energy prices might indicate.