James Paulsen
James Paulsen
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Business has tons and tons of capability to spend. The longer the recovery keeps going and stock prices go up, the more and more confident business is going to become, and the more it will spend on its operations.
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What's driving the market higher is continued evidence that the economy is stronger than expected. While people are waiting for rates to peak, they are missing out on a lot of rising stock prices.
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The stock market doesn't know if it should focus on the fact that the economy is strong and profit momentum is good, or that rates have to go higher.
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Profits are going to keep coming in better for longer, and that's pushing stock prices up.
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This economic recovery, both in the United States and globally, is staying stronger and more durable than what people thought. That means that profits are going to keep coming in better for longer, and that's pushing stock prices up.
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The Dogs often do well because adversity brings internal change to a company in management, approaches or efficiency. However, the investor is also exposed to high company-specific risk with such a small number of stocks, and we know from history that some stocks doing badly will continue to do badly.
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We've got total labor compensation growing at 6 percent. . . . We've got record-setting highs in terms of household net worth, and it's still a record high if you exclude housing.
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This was not a year for macro-sector bets whoever bet on sectors, or indexes other than energy, got extremely frustrated. This was the year of individual stocks.
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This was not a year for macro-sector bets -- whoever bet on sectors, or indexes other than energy, got extremely frustrated. This was the year of individual stocks.
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If they don?t raise rates, I will be worried. It tells me that they are very concerned and know something about the economy, I don?t. And that could push all the cyclicals and retailers down.
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Commodity prices are rising, quite dramatically for copper, tin and steel scrap. That would not happen if there was an expectation of a slowdown.
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With corporations sitting on excessively strong balance sheets, they've got the growth to set off a major spending cycle,
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Without a 'depression panic,' short-term rates probably would have bottomed fairly close to where they are today. Essentially, the Fed has just now returned interest rates back to recession lows and can now 'begin' to tighten.
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There is no message out there that rates are biting enough to shut anything down.