Joel Naroff
Joel Naroff
adjustment december decline existing given home january pace robust sales sharp start strong trend
Given how strong January existing home sales were, the surprisingly sharp decline in January new home sales may be more an adjustment to the robust December sales pace than the start of a weakening trend in housing.
against bid businesses capacity choice creeping inflation pressures running
Businesses are running up against capacity constraints and have no choice but to hire, and that may bid up wages. Productivity is decelerating and inflation pressures keep creeping up.
boss cannot good worries
Basically, the new boss has the same worries as the old boss. For the markets, this cannot be good news.
current great homes number problem selling toward trend
There is an ever-growing number of homes on the market, and while the overhang is not great at the current selling pace, it could become a problem if we trend back toward more sustainable levels,
clearly expect prices reason wholesale
Wholesale prices are going nowhere. We don't have deflation, but clearly there is no reason to expect prices to jump.
acted activity carry downward economic economy looked production saw spiral wanting
Manufacturers are not fools, and they looked out over the economy and saw that economic activity had slowed dramatically, ... Not wanting to carry inventories, they slashed production and workers. They acted correctly, but the downward spiral has been set in motion.
basis cut movement rest shows yield
If they cut by 50 basis points, we may also see some movement down in the rest of the yield curve, ... If they cut by 25 basis points, I don't think it shows up in the rest of the curve.
available data funds generate hopefully improvement point quarter rebound second seem solid spent
The data for the second quarter seem to point to a solid rebound in growth, ... That should generate improvement in profits, and hopefully the available funds will be spent on investment.
cutting households indicate start tells
It doesn't indicate that households are going to dramatically start cutting back spending, but this does tells us that consumption, at least in this quarter, isn't going to be that great,
bunny deficit describe growing keeps small steroids term trade
The trade deficit, if you can still use the term deficit to describe the GDP of a small country, just keeps getting wider. This is the Energizer bunny on steroids as it keeps growing and growing and growing.
consumers sector surprise
With consumers not spending, is it any surprise that the manufacturing sector has stumbled?
early estimates impacts katrina starting
We are starting to get early estimates of the impacts of Katrina and they are ugly.
bears economy points reached
There are seminal points in economies, and they're reached rarely, ... We reached one in the 1990s, and we will not go back to an economy that bears any resemblance to the one before.
air bubbles collapse country far likely losing plenty rapidly
There are plenty of bubbles around the country that are losing air rapidly and more are likely to follow. But so far there is no generalized collapse in the market.