Kim Rupert
Kim Rupert
economy economy-and-economics lost
That suggests the economy has lost some of its steam.
aggregate growth katrina regional suspect
We suspect the FOMC will say that while Katrina had a devastating regional impact, aggregate growth should be only temporarily damped.
ahead bit yield
I think were just having a little short-covering ahead of the weekend. We often see a bit of bottom-fishing when the yield is around 4.5%.
bullish data economy-and-economics given news seen strong surprising
Given some of the strong data we've seen lately, it's not surprising he's bullish on the economy. There's not a lot of new news in this.
believe continued curve economic expecting far growth result tight view yield
Our view is very optimistic. We believe that the tight yield curve is the result of the Fed's continued tightening. We are expecting economic growth of 4% much of this year. That is far from a recession.
biased fact frame good leave near pause people rates slightly suggest time yield
The fact that he didn't suggest any time frame for a pause is going to leave rates biased slightly higher. People still think a yield near 4.7% on the long end is a pretty good deal.
case growth likely looks means methods moderate people realistic sure
We all anticipated it would come to an end at some point, but we weren't sure if it would moderate or crash. It now looks like it crashed, but that more than likely means we'll see more moderate and realistic growth as people re-apply more traditional methods of financing. That should make the case for moderate, non-inflationary growth in 2000.
again begin data looking means stuff terms
We're going to be getting back to normal, with a lot of the panicky stuff dissipating. We're going to begin looking at the data again and what it means in terms of the Fed.
beforehand caused changes curve permanent seen shift subtle treasury week
What the Treasury has done has caused a significant, permanent shift in the way the curve is structured. We'd seen a lot of subtle changes beforehand but it was the announcement this week that really triggered the earthquake.
gains opportunity selling
The post-auction gains were used as a selling opportunity.
change hang market perception remains
Productivity still remains really solid, and one of the hallmarks of this whole expansion. If we can hang on to that I think the perception of where we're going in the market could change dramatically.
economy economy-and-economics generating grow increase normal pace rapid wage
Productivity, so far, has really enabled the economy to grow at a more rapid pace than normal without generating any kind of substantial increase in wage pressures.
above currently fed funds note people rate value
People don't see a lot of value in a 10-year note that currently is yielding above the Fed funds rate but will not be in a week.
cut rate size sloppy
There's enough uncertainty about the size of the rate cut to make it a pretty sloppy auction.