Marios Maratheftis
Marios Maratheftis
came change data hike interest march market numbers percent pricing pushed rate towards
The payrolls data managed to change interest rate expectations -- the market was pricing in a March (U.S. rate) hike by about 75-80 percent before the payrolls numbers came out. Once they had come out that was pushed towards 90 percent.
although bank building cuts england half hold pressure rate second weakness
We're going to see significant sterling weakness this year. Although the Bank of England is on hold for now the pressure is building for rate cuts in the second half of the year.
aggressive chinese correct gradual key move path rhetoric
There has been more aggressive rhetoric from the U.S., but rhetoric is not going to make the Chinese move faster. They're on the correct path with a gradual strengthening of the yuan. Gradual is the key word.
economic fact good investing investors japanese less missing overseas piece puzzle sign situation strong stronger translated
The situation with the yen is a very strong economic story which hasn't translated into a stronger currency. The one missing piece of the puzzle was the fact that Japanese investors were investing more abroad. Any sign that they're investing less overseas is good for the yen.
becomes bit clearer euro happening likely reforms result risk
There's a risk we get a bit of an overreaction to this result. We could still see reforms happening in Germany, and as the result becomes clearer the euro is likely to rebound.
reason
It is technical, there is no real reason.
change convincing difficult economic interest japan likely news policy rate recovery stage until
Economic news from Japan is positive, but the yen isn't benefiting from this very much because we're not likely to see a change in the interest rate policy yet. It's going to be difficult for the yen to stage a convincing recovery until the BOJ acts.
consistent market message
The message was consistent with what the market was already expecting.
continue dollar dominating fed market rate short signals supporting term theme thinking until
The dominating theme in the market is yield. That's supporting the dollar and will continue to do so in the short term until the Fed signals it's thinking about the end of the rate cycle.
dollar driving expectation fed force hiking main pressure rates stop
The dollar is under pressure and the main driving force for this is the market's expectation that the Fed will stop hiking rates soon.
dollar risk start worse
The dollar is down because of anticipation of tensions in the region. When things start to get worse it's the dollar that weakens. It's more to do with risk aversion.
against dollar relatively seem
The dollar does seem relatively overbought, especially against the yen,