Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldon
Michael Sheldonis a former Australian rules footballer who played with Essendon in the Victorian Football League...
carries fed goes hiking hold next performed period rate stocks
Historically, the three-month period before the Fed goes on hold in the rate hiking cycle, stocks have performed well and that carries on for the next 12 months,
among coal dose heavy including industry oil percent report results sensitive several steel
Just under 30 percent of the S&P 500 report results this week. Among the different industry groups, we'll get a heavy dose of economically sensitive names, including several from the oil and gas, rail, coal and steel industries.
earnings fear few focus higher interest last looks next outweigh rates weeks
I think the last few weeks have probably been frustrating for investors. Earnings have been very positive, but the focus has been on interest rates. Over the next few sessions, it looks like the fear of higher interest rates will probably outweigh the earnings.
below likely number
I think the number is likely to be below the median estimate.
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The rally the past few days shows investors are willing to look past this period of uncertainty toward a pickup in growth in early 2006. It's a pretty optimistic viewpoint and that could change when the data comes in.
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Given that tech companies are already trading at pretty high valuations, these companies' earnings are going to have to really deliver for the stock prices to show a substantial reaction.
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Pepsi's report looked pretty positive, in addition to Cisco, which is a bellwether in technology industry. Cisco's results last night were certainly a positive.
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My sense is we continue to see this correction over the next few weeks, but I think once we get through this period and some of the March data starts to come out, stocks will move higher.
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I think the fact that Greenspan brought the issue of a declining dollar, global trade imbalances and protectionism to the forefront adds to the pressure today.
fact few issues likely markets next remain trading
I think that next week, and in fact for the next few weeks, the markets are likely to remain in a trading range, with many of the same issues still in place.
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Over the next few trading sessions, it will be important to watch whether the stock market sells off on rising volume. If that should happen, that could mean a spring correction is on the way.
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Looking into the second quarter, what could move us higher is a decline in oil prices, lower bond yields, solid economic data that is non inflationary and stronger growth on the earnings front.
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Looking ahead to next week, the more important question for investors will be: 'Will the market experience a holiday hangover as investors take profits?'.
ahead followed half looking moderately optimistic performance second stronger weakness year
Looking ahead to 2005, we are moderately optimistic and are looking for a stronger performance in the first half of the year followed by some weakness in the second half of the year.