Patrick Fearon
Patrick Fearon
close investment point wage
We're probably close to the point where there will be a take-off in investment and wage growth.
claims close energy leading level months spike typical weekly
We're getting close to the weekly level of new claims that was typical of the months leading up to the late-summer hurricanes and the spike in energy prices.
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It could mean that those people don't show up in the jobless numbers until relatively late, so it's an evolving situations in terms of understanding the impact on the labor market.
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It could be this reflects the recent rebound in energy prices that possibly made people a little more cautious again.
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People who are unemployed are finding it relatively easier to find jobs. All around, it's a pretty good situation for the labor market.
ballgame consumer economic looks spending supporting terms trend weaker
Spending was up, a little weaker than expected... Nevertheless, the trend has been upward and it looks like the consumer is still in the ballgame in terms of supporting economic growth.
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Manufacturing in broad terms is enjoying a very robust period even if certain sub-industries are struggling. It's probably another piece of evidence that the Fed could potentially be raising interest rates after the May 10 monetary policy meeting.
fed raising rates stop support
That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
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The 1.9 percent December year-over-year rise in the core personal consumption expenditure index reflects a stable and modest inflation rate. That would support the idea that the Fed can stop raising rates soon.
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If the core rate doesn't get out of hand and growth comes in moderate, at some point fairly soon the Fed could decide ... to stop raising rates.
basically basis core inflation personal trend whether year
Whether you look at the core personal consumption expenditure index on a monthly basis or a year over year basis, the inflation trend is basically 'steady Eddie.
consumer easily fact final higher number shows
The fact that the final number is higher than the preliminary number shows that the American consumer is not going to be easily intimidated.
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The fact that (core inflation) has been on a downward trend for two months is more evidence that Fed policy-makers might stop raising interest rates sooner rather than later.
claims compared general healthy indicator initial labor last low march market months remains several size trend workforce
The trend in general for the last several months has been in this ballpark, with initial claims being really pretty low compared with the size of the workforce and the size of the economy. So for some time, jobless claims have been and indicator that the labor market remains healthy and March payrolls probably will remain pretty healthy as well.