Paul Ferley
Paul Ferley
exception generally indication move paid prices provides saw strength
We saw most of the indicators move up in the month, with the exception of the prices paid index, which generally provides an indication of strength in activity.
assume canadian continue dollar expectation fed generally holding markets resulting seems though
So at the moment, markets generally assume the Fed will continue to tighten. That expectation is generally resulting in the U.S. dollar strengthening, though the Canadian dollar seems to be holding its own.
bank buy canada canadian higher inflation interest investors labor market raise rate rates taking
The labor market is getting too tight, so the Bank of Canada may have to raise the rate more aggressively to keep inflation from taking hold. Higher interest rates get investors to buy the Canadian dollar.
canadian dollar economic fairly holding looking news next until
The Canadian dollar is holding fairly steady. Looking ahead, we're not getting too much economic news until next week.
bottom core inflation line
Bottom line is it's not flagging any inflation pressures, at least on a core basis.
canadian capital dollar further given goods investment
Given that we import a lot of capital equipment, this further strengthening of the Canadian dollar does make a lot of those investment goods that much cheaper.
below bubble close conditions expectation gains growth housing increases moderate mortgage present price prices rates recent require rising sharp since slow soon start thus
Bubble conditions may not be present yet but are approaching such and thus require close monitoring going forward. To allay this concern, housing price increases will need to start to moderate soon from recent sharp increases. Our expectation is that this should occur, since rising mortgage rates should slow the growth in housing prices to a rate below gains in income.
aggressive imply less previous relative slightly statement tone
This statement did imply a slightly less aggressive tone relative to its previous statement.
bond despite inflation low quiet reflected solid
Despite solid growth, inflation is quiet which is reflected in low bond yields.
areas correct definite eventually evident housing indicative local los marked markets pressures prices rapidly result rising risk seem thus vegas west
Pressures are particularly evident in the West where housing prices in local markets such as Riverside-San Bernardino (outside of Los Angeles) and Las Vegas are rising rapidly with an attendant marked deterioration in affordability. Rising prices in those areas seem more the result of speculative pressures and thus indicative of local housing market bubbles. There is the definite risk in these markets that prices will eventually need to correct sharply lower.
average close continues economy expand fairly growth numbers quarter suggest third
The numbers still suggest growth in the third quarter of about 3 percent, so the economy continues to expand at fairly close to long-term average rate,
change economy playing seems structural suggesting
It's suggesting this structural change playing out in the U.S. economy seems to still be continuing.
bit comments consensus continuing disaster economy fair fed hike momentum natural officials recent resulted seems
Recent comments by Fed officials on indications that the U.S. economy had a fair bit of momentum going into the natural disaster seems to have resulted in the consensus of the Fed continuing to hike rates,
bank canada flag further markets move outlook poised rate sidelines tomorrow waiting whether
Markets are probably waiting for the announcement by the Bank of Canada tomorrow to get a sense of the characterization of the near-term outlook for policy: whether they'll flag they're poised to move to the sidelines or whether they're still contemplating further rate hikes.