Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
consumer evidence slow spending starting
We think consumer spending will slow down and we're starting to see some evidence of that.
almost base certainly hold rates remain
Base rates will almost certainly remain on hold at 4.5%.
agile minds people tend
People with agile minds tend to have a very agile cortex.
brain changed child children early grows intelligence intelligence-and-intellectuals late opposite pattern relationship smartest structure surprised thinner
I was surprised that the relationship between intelligence and brain structure changed so much as a child grows up. In early childhood, the smartest children had a thinner cortex -- this is the opposite of what you'd expect. By late childhood, the pattern had changed completely.
balance expect hold inflation last likely month news past rates remain report steady strong turned
Last month's inflation report was about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see. The balance of news has turned around significantly over the past month and we now expect rates to remain on hold at 4.5% for the remainder of the year.
inflation last likely rates report steady strong
Last month's inflation report ... (was) about as strong an endorsement of steady rates as one is likely to see.
balance base believe cent data hold per rates remain rest risks trends trigger turned weak
Overall, it would take some very weak data to trigger another cut. While this is not impossible, especially if consumption trends are weak, the balance of risks has turned and we now believe that base rates will remain on hold at 4.5 per cent for the rest of the year.
base hold rates remain rest view
Our view is that base rates will remain on hold for the rest of the year, but that if there were to be a move, it would be down.
base continues course economy percent present rates remain rest unless view
Our view continues to be that unless the economy veers sharply from its present course one way or the other, base rates will remain at 4.5 percent for the rest of the year.
act boom december gone january marks retail slow spencer uk
Marks & Spencer has got its act together, ... There has been a UK retail boom in December but January has gone off to a slow start.
bang line market
The announcement was bang in line with market expectations.
couple critical data deals due expect january numbers pay remain signs
The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.
coming committee continue debate downside output rates received surprises upside
The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.