Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
coming committee continue debate downside output rates received surprises upside
The debate over rates will continue to intensify over the coming months, not least as the committee has received downside surprises from output and upside surprises from inflation.
couple critical data deals due expect january numbers pay remain signs
The critical numbers will be the data on January which are due in a couple of months, but there are no signs of inflation-busting pay deals from these numbers and we expect that to remain the case.
consumer evidence slow spending starting
We think consumer spending will slow down and we're starting to see some evidence of that.
growth last services stepped surprise upside
The PMI is a big upside surprise ... and is at least hinting that services growth stepped up at the end of last year.
believe differ expect high hold majority members official peter rates recent remain run spending street stronger
While we believe the recent run of stronger high street spending will peter out, a majority of MPC members may differ and we expect official rates to remain on hold at 4.5 percent.
call continued couple cut degree growth interest justifying lower mean nervous next rate ready sluggish throw
We are increasingly nervous about our call for a quarter-point rate cut in February, even if we are not ready to throw in the towel. Continued sluggish growth should mean the next couple of years see a degree of disinflation, justifying lower interest rates.
cut door next open perhaps rates soon
We think the door is still open for a cut in rates over the next two months, perhaps as soon as next month.
chances hike next virtually week
We think the chances of a hike next week are virtually zero.
headline peak seen
What this suggests is that we may have already seen the peak of headline inflation.
corporate nervous seen trading worst
We will see nervous trading ahead, as we have seen from Cisco that the worst is not yet over for corporate earnings.
found pattern
We found that the cortex showed a different pattern of development.
continued houses line shows
This shows a continued need for new houses in line with the recommendations of the Barker report.