Philip Shaw
Philip Shaw
cannot changing economy economy-and-economics five growing next pace quarters situation year
The economy has been growing at a sub-par pace for five quarters now and we cannot see that situation changing over the next year or so.
account current deficit due earnings greater overseas
The current account deficit was very disappointing. What we hadn't factored in was the greater outflow due to overseas earnings in the UK.
call clearly expected figures interest july near pressures question raise rates whether
The figures are significantly better than expected and may call into question whether the MPC will raise interest rates at its July meeting. Clearly there are no inflationary pressures in the near term.
although core expected figures improvement petrol prices rate
The figures are better than expected and although petrol prices have come down, there is an improvement in core rate of inflation.
background bag despite figures general higher inflation input low mixed output price quite remains striking
The figures are a mixed bag but what's quite striking is how low output price inflation remains despite the general background of higher input costs.
below changing five growth main next output point quarters though trend year
The main point though is that output growth has now been below trend for five quarters and we can't see that changing over the next year or so,
main message mortgage strength
The main message here is the unremitting strength of the mortgage market.