Richard Cripps
Richard Cripps
almost bullish fed good interest investor last rates shot time using year
I think if you are bullish here, you go back and look to the last time the Fed eased up on interest rates which was 1995, which, of course, was a good year for investors. The S&P shot up almost 35 percent. So using that as a guide, some investor think that is what we're going to see.
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Good earning growth. Next year, their earnings will be about $1.90 (per share). That's just 10 times this year's current stock price.
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We've set up a situation where a 25 basis point (a quarter percentage point) cut is good but you're looking at a market that's desperate.
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Whenever the market is as oversold as it is right now, it's typically been a good idea to do some buying. The question is what to buy and the lack of a 'go to' area is keeping investors on the sidelines.
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It's the analogy of the straw and the camel's back. We keep loading the camel's back with straw and higher energy prices and interest rates. It's probably going to be what's good for oil is going to be bad for the rest of the market.
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We have good optimism out there and that's always the time to think about what dark clouds are out there.
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The markets are getting oversold and typically you're at levels where markets that are this oversold can have pretty good rallies. I think investors are cognizant of the fact that things are weak, but they also don't want to miss an incredible rally if one occurs.
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I think that the correction that we've seen in the market averages, in the Nasdaq, is probably reflecting an inflection point for the equity market that's going to be not as focused on technology. It's going to be shifting more into the broader segments of the equity market.
buyers fear left result
I think it's more a result of a fear of buyers being left behind.
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I think (the market) needs the ECI price deflator numbers coming in at acceptable levels, meaning that they don't raise the fear of inflation, it needs the Fed not raising interest rates in August and as we move toward the fall, continuing signs that the economy is moderating and that inflation is low.
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I think you are near (capitulation) at the moment and you are getting close to the bottom. Technology stocks are driven on the expectation and we're in a period now where expectations are being lowered. What you'll have happen is stocks will react to the fact that expectations are too low.
brave buying opposed trying
I would let this play out as opposed to trying to be brave and buying here.
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This was a good, constructive quarter. The market overcame two problem areas: the Fed raising interest rates and high oil prices.
dressing market mind next people window
Keep in mind most people are now working into the next quarter. The window dressing that has been powering the market may be gone.