Sung Sohn
Sung Sohn
Sung Won Sohnis a Korean American economist, noted for his skill in economic forecasting. He is currently the Martin V. Smith Professor of Economics at California State University, Channel Islands...
aggressive market
I think the aggressive expectations of the market are not going to be met.
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Historically, economic and political crises have been buying opportunities. Looking at 17 crises, ranging from President Wilson's nervous breakdown to the Gulf War, the stock market setback generally has been a short-term matter lasting no more than a few months.
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Greenspan has to make sure the labor market has improved on a continuing basis before he can even think about hiking interest rates. For example, in 1992, he waited 17 months after the peak of the unemployment rate before hiking interest rates.
consumer drop markets sharp
If they don't deliver, we could see a sharp sell-off in markets and a drop in consumer confidence,
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If they keep the word, the financial markets will like that, because the Fed has put itself in a self-imposed box. If they discard the word measured, they'll be saying they're free to do what they want.
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Corporate profits are likely to rise at double-digit rates in the second half of the year. And that will be hopefully enough to offset some of the negative psychology in the stock market -- assuming it doesn't get worse.
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Employment gains are rising at a slower rate, retail sales are decelerating somewhat, the stock market is going through some turmoil and the Middle East situation is also probably having a dampening impact on consumers' willingness to spend, ... So I think the Michigan confidence report is consistent with an overall picture in which consumers are doing well, but probably taking a breather for a while.
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This time around, my guess is that the lead may end up being shorter than the historic average, ... I wouldn't rule out the possibility of the stock market being an almost coincident indicator.
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The problem is that the stock market tends to predict downturns or upturns too early. The common joke is that the stock market predicted 11 out of the last 9 recessions.
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Unless the labor market gains some steam and momentum, both real income and confidence of consumers would be hurt.
economy market maybe stock
Maybe the stock market bottomed on Sept. 21 and maybe the economy did the same.
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It was a very balanced statement. Given the current fragile state of the stock market and the economy, they wanted to do nothing which might add to volatility, so they decided to say as little as possible.
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It will have some positive effect, but I don't think there's a strong conviction the stock market rally is going to be sustained. No one is really cashing it in and beginning to spend more money.
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In the summertime, we have a lot of plant shutdowns, especially in the auto industry. Despite that, we saw a drop in initial claims, ... That's indicating that the employment market has not only stabilized, but has begun to improve slightly.